Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Start or Sit Challenge Update

I just reviewed the results of my week three Start/Sit Challenge entry over at Fantasy Pros.

After an awful week two, I rebounded for a 137 score--with the top score being 160.

My ranking was 11 out of 67 versus professional fantasy writers.

I had two bad picks last week: 1) Plaxico easily scored more than Jerome Simpson (had I known Simpson was not going to start; I would have gone with Plax as I was hoping for the motivated Simpson eager to get away from his personal life and perform on the field);  and 2) Shonn Greene outperformed James Starks by 10 points--just missed that one.

After a stellar Week #1, I am guessing that I am due for lousy picks in the next slate of games.

If that is the case, you won't see me mention Start/Sit Challenge next week.

Living life wearing rose colored glasses--yep, that is me.

Here are my stats so far:

Week 1: Rank #2, 146.02 points

Week 2: Rank #52, 92.04 points

Week 3: Rank #11, 136.98 points

Thursday, September 22, 2011

The Mental Game

Tennessee Titans Insider Jim Wyatt reported this today on star running back Chris Johnson:

Running back Chris Johnson needs as many reps as he can take to get on the same page with his offensive line. He didn’t practice Wednesday, however, because of sore ribs.

Johnson said he would practice Thursday and expects to play on Sunday against the Broncos.

“I am just a little sore,” he said. “I got a lot of mental reps. I’ll be OK...

Glad to hear that you got all those "mental reps" at practice today Chris.

I just finished a 6 mile mental rep run, and before that, I completed three sets of mental rep bench presses of 325 lbs.

Dude, I am exhausted...

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

True Confessions: Of the Fantasy Football Variety

I'd like to clear my conscience of a few things after two weeks of football:

1)  I was big on Jamaal Charles

Yes, I had him ranked as the #3 fantasy guy earlier this year (behind Peterson and Foster, but ahead of Chris Johnson when he was holding out).  One cannot predict injuries, but history tells us that no matter how good a running back is, if his team is losing by three touchdowns in the 3rd quarter every week, the back's fantasy value will suffer. Charles was going to "suffer" through a long season on a bad team anyway.

2) I traded Beanie Wells and Miles Austin for Nicks and low-ranking receiver

It was prior to the season starting, I was deep at running back, and of course I am convinced that Austin was personally motivated to post great fantasy point totals just to make me look bad.

3) I passed on Kenny Britt

I had him high because he is big, fast, and I liked his performance last year; not to mention that the Titans brought in a veteran QB to throw to him.  I just could not get past the character issues--that he might be suspended and miss games.  So far skipping him has been a big whiff for me.

4) My fantasy team is 2-0 so far-- I admit that we are not good but lucky

Drafting Mendenhall and Gore as a solid one-two running back punch seemed like a good idea, but has me just disappointed now.  Some of the experts cited Mendenhall's overuse last year as a reason to stay away from him; I blocked it out.  Combine that with Isaac Redman stealing goal line runs, and I may be witnessing a recipe for disaster.  As for my other team "stars": QB Rivers has not been great, Nicks has been good but not stellar, and Mike Williams posted the magic negative total this past week.  Blah...


I am sure I'll have more confessions to report (that I am in denial about now) after a few more weeks.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Start or Sit: The Accuracy Challenge

For this week, at least, I can claim that my fantasy football advice is better than just about every paid expert out there.

My entry for the Start/Sit Accuracy Challenge over at FantasyPros scored a 146 or third place out of the fifty-eight experts the site tracks.  Keet Bailey and Kevin Roberts at NFL Soup finished first and second respectively; edging me by a mere one point.

But as with most things in life, I'll enjoy smiling and patting myself on the back this test result, fully expecting to finish next to last in week two.  


Note: I learned about the challenge over at the Fantasy Football Librarian's site.

Monday Night Injury

I learned last year that if you have a star performer with an injury who is questionable and is scheduled to play on Monday night, grab another player (teammate or from the opponent's team) at the same position for your bench.

That way, if it is announced that your star is unable to go right before kickoff, you have another player to insert into your lineup.

Otherwise, you have to play someone else prior to Monday's game or take a risk that might leave you with a zero point performance by your injured guy.

This week, I am watching the Giants' WR Nicks and his bad knee.  If he can't play on Monday, I also have the Giants WR Manningham.

Hopefully, Nicks will be a go--I like the Giants having a good offensive showing after a poor showing in Week #1 and playing a banged-up Rams squad.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

On the David Garrard Release

I had another post ready until I saw that the Jags QB David Garrard was released today.

Now, he was not a top fantasy performer, but what does that move mean for other players of the Jaguars?

The stock for RB Jones-Drew certainly should decline some as the pressure will be great on one of the McCown brothers to run the offense. 

I'd avoid the team's top receivers including Mike Thomas and Cecil Shorts as the team certainly will try to establish a running game (and then watch defenses clog the box to stop it).

But, making a QB change right before the season opener may provide an opportunity for fantasy owners.

Remember when the Titans did that a few years ago or when the Cardinals dumped Matt Leinart in 2010?

Neither move translated into a successful season.

This could be an opportunity to grab the defense who plays the Jags each week--as it is likely Luke McCown and company will struggle and turn the ball over.

The Jags first five games are against the Titans, Jets, Panthers, Saints and Bengals.

In sum, avoid Jags players at least initially, but look for opportunities for their opponents.

Friday, September 2, 2011

My Fantasty Draft Evaluated

I had my 2011 NFL.com Fantasy Draft late last week, and am happy with the results.

Of course, I never land all of the players that I want.

Picking late in a snake draft (8), limited my first pick options, but I was glad to see RB Mendenhall available. 

With the second round pick, I went with probably my highest risk/reward pick in selecting RB Frank Gore.  He is valuable while he is healthy, but never seems to escape the injury bug.  Passing on about all of the top receivers to grab Gore may haunt me.

I knew WR Nicks would likely not be there when I picked in the late 3rd, and to my regret, he was chosen a few picks ahead of me.  With two star RBs, I decided to go with QB Rivers. 

I have no problem in waiting to grab a QB later (Big Ben) if I like who is on the board, but this year many of the guys I liked for round 3 were gone. 

I was glad to take Rivers and not have to worry about the position though.  Last year I got burned by a QB run and was left with QB Kolb--that definitely did not work out. 

After going with WR Austin, I was able to stockpile backs--grabbing my planned flex back RB F. Jones, my primary depth guy RB F. Jackson, and RB Wells.  I also nabbed WR M. Williams (Bucs) during that span of picks. 

The good backup QBs were on the board when I picked RB Wells, but I felt like waiting was a reasonable strategy with QB Rivers good health. 

Plus, in a ten-team league, productive QBs can be found later in the waiver pile.

I was tempted to grab QB Stafford though.

For TEs, I landed the Saints sleeper Jimmy Graham and the Bucs's always limping Winslow, Jr.

I did not like my depth at wideout after settling for WR Manningham and Knox, and had some concerns about my #1 WR Austin, so I planned to look for a trade.   

My last two picks were K (Rams' Brown) and 49ers DEF--I play matchups with Team D.

In sum, I was happy with my mock draft results.  I am strong at RB as long as Gore stays on the field, and Jones meets expectations for what is supposed to be a good Cowboy team.  I have a top 5 QB and solid WRs.  The TEs may be good or a weakness, but should be at least solid.

I was able to work a trade at WR, and I'll cover that deal next post.

It will be a pleasure or torture to reread this post again in a few weeks.