Wednesday, April 25, 2012

My Top 10 Mock Draft

Every year, I try to mock the Top 10 NFL draft picks accurately.

For the selections that I miss on, I pay older kid a quarter or something.

If a team makes a draft-day trade that I did not predict, then I am out of luck.

He looks at my efforts as "easy money," but in any event, here goes:

1) Colts: Andrew Luck, Stanford, QB
2) Redskins: Robert Griffin III, Baylor, QB

Freebies.  Then it gets tough.

3) Vikings: Matt Kalil, T, USC

The Vikings have done a fantastic job in convincing everyone that they are not sold on one player and want to trade down--and they may do that.  If not, they could go CB or WR here, but Minnesota needing OL help and since no CB or WR is the best non-QB in this draft, I say they go Kalil here.

Note: I see reports are that the Bills are interested in trading up for Kalil.

4) Browns: Trent Richardson, RB, Bama

The Browns have so many holes, they could could win with any of five players here.  I see Cleveland needing an immediate offensive playmaker and I think Richardson is the best non-QB in the draft.  They would have to consider a WR and QB, but Richardson trumps everyone.

5) Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

As a Bucs fan, I would love to see Richardson fall to them, but I don't expect it. Tampa signed a free agent CB to start, but with an aging CB Ronde Barber trying to give it one more try and CB Aqib Talib's felony trial later this summer, the best cornerback in the draft would be a tough pass.

Note: With Talib,  I laughed at the report a few weeks ago that Bucs management was interested in trading him. Trade? A guy who may be soon sentenced to a lengthy stay in prison?  If the Eagles can only get a 7th round pick for great cover CB Asante Samuel--well, that should speak volumes about Talib's current trade value. 

6) Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR, Okla. St.

Who will be sweating the most on draft day?  I say Rams' officials--I believe they traded down calculating that the best WR would still be available at pick 6. Yet, I would not be shocked if the Vikings or Browns grab Blackmon.  If that happens, the Rams would grab which player from above was still there--hoping then it would be Claiborne.  They would then pursue WRs later.

7) Jaguars: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

I think the Jags would love to get WR Blackmon here, but since he won't be available, they take the top pass rusher.  I think a more appealing pick for Jags fans would be WR Michael Floyd though.

8) Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

The Dolphins have not had much luck getting players on the free agent market, and failed to address their need for a long-term solution at QB.  I am not sure if Tannehill is the answer, but the public pressure will be too much to resist.  Miami takes the best QB on the board.

9) Panthers: Fletcher Cox, DT, Miss. State

The Panthers were bad on defense last year so obtaining the best DT in the draft at #9 would be a win.  I can see the Panthers taking a chance here and going with combine star DT Dontari Poe, but it appears that Cox is ready to play now--appealing to a team that expects to compete this season in the NFC South.

10) Bills: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

Offense line picks are valuable but never sexy for fans.  I think the Bills would consider S Mark Barron here--as he has been rocketing up draft boards--but their roster seems to be strong at safety and taking S Donte Whitmore in the top 10 a few years ago, did not pan out.  Also, Michael Floyd would be appealing for the Bills, but being boring and drafting an OL would make the most long-terms sense here.

Since my son is a Broncos fan, I also always give a try with Denver...

25) Broncos: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Bama

I think the Broncos would drool if WR Stephen Hill, RB David Martin, or G David Decastro was still available, but I don't see that happening. So, the Broncos would want to go DT or CB here. Many experts are saying DT Poe, but I see him as too much of a risk for a team that expects to win now.  Kirkpatrick is arguably the best corner in the draft, and certainly playing in the SEC, is used to seeing the best receivers every week.

Note: I think Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden may be a steal in this year's draft.  The former professional baseball pick is consistently down-graded for being "too old" at 28.  I just see the guy as mature--and who is 6'4, runs a 4.8 forty, and has a great throwing arm.    


Ok, there you have it.

Enjoy the first day of the draft tomorrow.

Despite my arguments, I am sure I'll be a little poorer afterward.  


AFTER DRAFT UPDATE: I was 5 for 11 so older son was happy.

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