I Prefer Fantasy Drafts after the Preseason

I prefer late fantasy drafts over early ones.

So many players get injured, lose their starting jobs, or get cut during the preseason, that it makes a first week in August draft, too much of a crap-shoot for me.

For instance, I liked Matt Flynn as a late-round back-up QB--depending on my starter (like if I draft Michael Vick, I'd will certainly grab a decent second QB).

But today, it was announced that rookie Russell Wilson earned the starting QB job for the Seahawks, and Flynn will be holding a clipboard (an expensive clipboard holder at that with his $10 million guranteed).

Also, I don't go after a kicker until the end of a draft. As such, I take whomever is left--as other owners have grabbed the top rated guys.

Going into camp, I liked Texans' rookie K Randy Bullock. He was a 4th round draft pick, was almost certain to win the job, and Houston is a high-scoring offense that would give him plenty of opportunities to score (the experts had him rated anywhere from the 10th to 15th best fantasy kicker).

But also today, the Texans placed Bullock on Injured Reserve for the season due to a groin injury.

Thus, an early draft of Bullock would have left me scrambling the waiver wire for an emergency replacement (if I stay Texans then Shayne Graham may be that kicker).

In any event, fantasy drafts that are held at the end of the preseason are the best in my opinion--at least you have a clear picture of players that will compete in Week 1.

Back and Watch for Sliders

Back from the beach, and I am ready for football season to start.

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I noticed a couple of players sliding some on the NFL.com fantasy draft board.

Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego (from #9 to #26)

I was watching the first Charger preseason game when Mathews took a handoff, gained a few yards, and looked like he fell awkwardly.

He went to the sideline, showed no sign of being in pain, but never reentered the game. I was surprised to learn that he had broken his clavicle and may miss a few regular season contests.

Fantasy seasons are not won in week one or two. Getting Mathews at a bargain price and having him available for the bulk of your games is a plus.

Health has always been a concern for him, but he runs, he catches, his primary backup is now in Carolina, and Coach Turner wants him to be a workhorse this year.

I say take Mathews and enjoy the value selection

Isaac Redman, RB Pittsburgh (from low #70s to #84)

Redman has a hip injury and missed the last preseason game. Regular starter Rashard Mendenhall was recently activated from the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list.

What does this mean?

I say not too much.

Well, I am not high on Mendenhall this year--rehabbing his torn ACL is going to take time and I don't expect Steelers management to rush him. Redman's injury does not appear serious and he showed he has talent with the 142 total yards in last year's playoff loss (plus over 500 total yards and 3 TDs in limited regular season action).

Also, with new offensive coordinator Todd Haley, they will want to run the ball consistently and will pull the plug on QB Big Ben trying to throw for 400 yards per game--last season's predominant game plan.

I am expecting Redman to carry the ball plenty of times per contest.

So, don't get distracted with the Mendenhall or Redman news, taking him as a mid-round RB has plenty of upside.

Interested in Joining My Fantasy Football League?

Is anyone interested in joining my fantasy football league for the upcoming season?

I have one opening for a team.

The league is ten teams, we compete for free at NFL.com, and new players are welcome (I think we currently have two first-time players).

If you are interested or have questions, just send me an email at theslamdunktrove@gmail.com .

Had a Bad Day

With a new fantasy football season on the horizon, I do enjoy the funny commercials like this one from NFL.com.

The "One Giant Step" part has older boy giggling every time he sees it.

Arrests: How Does that Impact Your Draft?

Adrian Peterson.

Dez Bryant.

Marshawn Lynch.

Kenny Britt.

I liked the fantasy football prospects of each of these players, but after recent arrests, how will that impact my fantasy drafting?

Should I Participate in Fantasy Drafts Later Rather than Earlier?

Yes. Lots can happen between now and early September when the NFL regular season starts. Injuries, demotions, roster changes, and of course, arrests that can impact a promising fantasy football player. I prefer to wait until late August for fantasy drafts--it gives me more time to evaluate how players charged criminally will fair in court as well as if any team or league punishment will be a factor.

Was the Player Expected to be Critical in Their Team's Success?

Each of the four players mentioned above are stars, and their respective teams would love to have them on the field.  Peterson and Britt are coming off serious injuries and were not expected to be ready early in the season anyway. The Titans and the Vikings already have a Plan B in place. From a fantasy perspective--I'll need to evaluate if grabbing the "Plan B" players early and then selecting Peterson and/or Britt is better than alternative selections.

How will the arrest impact their draft value?

Of the four players, only Britt tumbled on ratings boards.  Combine the arrest with his past discipline problems and multiple surgeries, he fell from an under 60 to a now over 100 ranking on NFL.com. In Week 3 last year, Britt was a fantasy star WR--having 289 yards and three TDs in limited action. Insiders still rave about his abilities, and taking Britt with one of your last fantasy picks is much more appealing than risking a 5th or 6th round selection on him.

How much NFL news is enough?

Ha, I don't think I can put a ceiling on the amount of information that one can gain about the teams, coaches, and players. Figuring out what role each arrested player is expected to assume, what the commissioner or general manager is saying about him, and what non-criminal behaviors are being reported, can certainly give you a heads-up as to what players to avoid or take a risk on pre-draft.

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In sum, when an NFL player is arrested, it is certainly something worth monitoring, but it can also allow you to draft a good player at an improved value--after the situation is resolved.

The First Round: Who am I Iffy on?

The first round of a fantasy draft can make or break your season.

Missing on what is supposed to be a star player can cause an owner to play a constant-game of catch-up throughout the season.

Last season, I chose Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall who underperformed.

Pittsburgh finally jettisoned their lackluster running strategy after the first few games, and emphasized an air attack--which had me benching Mendenhall some weeks.

Benching your #1 pick should not happen.

So, which top player am I squeamish on this year?

From NFL.com's rankings, will Calvin Johnson (8) suffer the Madden Curse?

Can Drew Brees (6) overcome an offseason of turmoil?

Will Ryan Matthews (9) ever not be labeled a fantasy bust?

Can Maurice Jones-Drew's body last another season of pounding?

Ok, so I am a little concerned about those guys, but my biggest worry of the top five players is with RB Arian Foster (1).

Earlier this month, Foster announced that he was going vegan.

He will now forgo consuming animal products.

Now, I have nothing against anyone who chooses this path (I respect it), but it does concern me when an NFL running back announces this decision.

Such a change would require Foster to be "vegan fluent" to ensure that his body is getting enough nutrients.

Will he have time to properly monitor and adjust his diet during the busy season?

What impact will the new eating approach have on him by Week 6?

If he decides to change back to a regular diet mid-season, how long will his body need to adjust?

Foster's situation is certainly one that I'll be keeping tabs on up until draft time.

Adrian Peterson Arrested

When I saw that Adrian Peterson had been arrested in Houston for "resisting arrest," I immediately wanted to know several things.

Did he run from police and if so, how did his speed look?

How many officers did it take to place him under arrest?

Was he able to make sharp cuts on his rehabbing knee?

Did he get injured during the incident (besides reporting shortness of breath)?

Was his shortness of breath an indicator as to his current physical conditioning?

Yes, every news item does revolve around my potential fantasy football team.

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One observation on the incident--the latest report says that an intoxicated Peterson pushed down an off-duty police officer working an extra job at a bar.

Numerous law enforcement agencies will not permit their personnel to work extra jobs at bars and clubs.

Too much trouble equates to too much liability for the agency.