Fantasy football analyst John Paulsen, on his July 7th 4for4 Podcast, made an informative observation about the Broncos offense that could be helpful in selecting a productive late round WR.
For fantasy WRs, I like to try and predict productive offenses, and then grab a third receiver or perhaps someone who is competing for a starting job in the preseason from one of those teams. The idea being that high scoring offenses will create opportunities for lots of players, and QBs who spread the ball around, can make that second or third WR a solid fantasy starter.
Recently, the Broncos have been one of those high octane offenses. I have been attracted to anyone that is on the field regularly with Peyton Manning.
But is that a viable strategy for this season?
Paulsen observes that the Broncos slowed the offense down significantly after Manning's injury late last year. That new coach Gary Kubiak favors a more balanced run-pass offense, as opposed to Manning's no-huddle pass and fireworks show.
Also, Kubiak prefers to run two TE formations that better support the running game. If so, this would mean only two WRs regularly in the game for Denver: Thomas and Sanders.
Who then would be the third WR left on the bench?
Cody Latimer.
In early 10-team mock drafts (2 WR, 2 RB, & 1 WR/RB flex), I liked grabbing Latimer (#105 ADP on NFL.com) as a last player reserve player, but Paulsen's observations have me reconsidering that idea.
Do I really want Latimer if he is going to watching much of the action from the sideline with a Gatorade?
If Paulsen's observations hold true, I would be better off taking a flyer pick on Eagles rookie Nelson Agholor (#103 ADP), Davante Adams (#193 ADP, Packers), or Mohammed Sanu (#185 ADP, Bengals).
Showing posts with label fantasyfootball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fantasyfootball. Show all posts
Saturday, July 18, 2015
Monday, July 13, 2015
Valuing Stewart and Green
I have been practicing fantasy drafts using NFL.com for a few weeks now (I know, I am such a goob), and here are a couple of observations thus far:
OVERVALUED
Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart (#37 overall, ADP = 39.29)
As a disclaimer, I must confess to have had Stewart on more than one fantasy team over the years. He was once great, and certainly has performed at a high level in the NFL. Unfortunately, he has missed 18 games in the last three seasons and historically his coaches have preferred using a running back-by committee-approach. With a 3rd or 4th pick in a 10 team draft, I want someone with much less risk attached than Stewart. I am actually more excited to see who the #2 RB on the Panthers depth chart will be. Rookie Cameron Artis-Payne may be much more appealing as a late round flyer or waiver wire claim if Stewart is unable to perform. I will be watching both of these RBs in training camp.
UNDERVALUED
Chargers TE LaDarius Green (#210 overall, ADP = 149.95)
It can be difficult for fantasy football fans to hear a name that burned them before. Green was a hot item for some of the experts in 2013--a few even ranked him higher than future hall of fame TE Antonio Gates. But 2014 came and went , and Green's 19 catches and zero touchdowns left supporters wondering what went wrong. Well 2015 is a fresh start. Green is still big, fast, and has good hands. Two events have also added to Green's appeal: starter Gates is suspended for the first four games and this is a contract year for Green. In addition, the Chargers offense looks unsettled as a rookie RB should get the starting nod, and a committee of receivers (none with a wow factor) will be vying for targets. Green's presence as a large receiver and his knowledge of the offense and QB Rivers, may make him a promising target--at least initially. Certainly, Green is worth consideration for fantasy owners unable to secure Gronk, Graham or Olsen and are looking for a TE gem late.
More on the way...
OVERVALUED
Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart (#37 overall, ADP = 39.29)
As a disclaimer, I must confess to have had Stewart on more than one fantasy team over the years. He was once great, and certainly has performed at a high level in the NFL. Unfortunately, he has missed 18 games in the last three seasons and historically his coaches have preferred using a running back-by committee-approach. With a 3rd or 4th pick in a 10 team draft, I want someone with much less risk attached than Stewart. I am actually more excited to see who the #2 RB on the Panthers depth chart will be. Rookie Cameron Artis-Payne may be much more appealing as a late round flyer or waiver wire claim if Stewart is unable to perform. I will be watching both of these RBs in training camp.
UNDERVALUED
Chargers TE LaDarius Green (#210 overall, ADP = 149.95)
It can be difficult for fantasy football fans to hear a name that burned them before. Green was a hot item for some of the experts in 2013--a few even ranked him higher than future hall of fame TE Antonio Gates. But 2014 came and went , and Green's 19 catches and zero touchdowns left supporters wondering what went wrong. Well 2015 is a fresh start. Green is still big, fast, and has good hands. Two events have also added to Green's appeal: starter Gates is suspended for the first four games and this is a contract year for Green. In addition, the Chargers offense looks unsettled as a rookie RB should get the starting nod, and a committee of receivers (none with a wow factor) will be vying for targets. Green's presence as a large receiver and his knowledge of the offense and QB Rivers, may make him a promising target--at least initially. Certainly, Green is worth consideration for fantasy owners unable to secure Gronk, Graham or Olsen and are looking for a TE gem late.
More on the way...
Sunday, August 17, 2014
Take Jimmy Graham with Your First Pick?
For the past few seasons, I have been all in on Saints TE Jimmy Graham.
He has been a touchdown machine and worthy of a high fantasy draft pick.
And he should flourish in getting off the ball better with the new stricter enforcement about defensive contact--the rule that tries to keep defensive backs from touching receivers outside of the designated zones.
But still this year, I am worried.
The going rate for him is late first round or #8 overall at NFL.com.
Which means by selecting Graham, I'd likely be passing up elite running backs like Ball, Foster, and Murray. And depending on the draft order, I'd also risk missing out on the top WRs and perhaps QBs as well.
It just seems like that there is a model now to neutralize him, and defensive coordinators have had all of the off-season to study it.
The Patriots put Talib on him all game and Jimmy totaled zero catches.
Graham did have a touchdown against Seattle in the regular season game last year, but he was limited to 3 catches for 40 or so yards and was not a key contributor.
The playoff game against the Seahawks featured a Seattle defense that completely prevented Graham from helping his team.
It is tough for me to block the memory of those performances.
Now, Graham should be the #1 TE considered in fantasy drafts and everyone expects him to grab balls and cross the goal line regularly, but I struggle with the price: that late first round pick.
I will be comfortable letting someone else select him at #8, and then waiting until the mid-rounds or later for a TE.
I'll have to wait and see if my concern over Graham was accurate or misguided.
Such is the life of a fantasy owner.
He has been a touchdown machine and worthy of a high fantasy draft pick.
And he should flourish in getting off the ball better with the new stricter enforcement about defensive contact--the rule that tries to keep defensive backs from touching receivers outside of the designated zones.
But still this year, I am worried.
The going rate for him is late first round or #8 overall at NFL.com.
Which means by selecting Graham, I'd likely be passing up elite running backs like Ball, Foster, and Murray. And depending on the draft order, I'd also risk missing out on the top WRs and perhaps QBs as well.
It just seems like that there is a model now to neutralize him, and defensive coordinators have had all of the off-season to study it.
The Patriots put Talib on him all game and Jimmy totaled zero catches.
Graham did have a touchdown against Seattle in the regular season game last year, but he was limited to 3 catches for 40 or so yards and was not a key contributor.
The playoff game against the Seahawks featured a Seattle defense that completely prevented Graham from helping his team.
It is tough for me to block the memory of those performances.
Now, Graham should be the #1 TE considered in fantasy drafts and everyone expects him to grab balls and cross the goal line regularly, but I struggle with the price: that late first round pick.
I will be comfortable letting someone else select him at #8, and then waiting until the mid-rounds or later for a TE.
I'll have to wait and see if my concern over Graham was accurate or misguided.
Such is the life of a fantasy owner.
Saturday, August 9, 2014
When to Draft a Tight End
When should you draft a tight end in your fantasy football standard scoring league?
Lately, I have been reading and listening to lots of the experts talk draft strategy.
With TEs, everyone likes Jimmy Graham, but some favor Rob Gronkowski and expect him to regain his previous superstar form, while still other experts recommend Broncos end Julius Thomas as the one to target--that another year working with Peyton Manning, combined with his value at the overall ranking of #42 , are too appealing to pass on.
Whichever TE that you think will be best this season, one draft strategy prevails among the experts.
It is a two-pronged approach where you either:
Though more risky, the latter option still has potential.
I loved watching Reed play last year. Good hands and gets open. The scare with him is injuries.
An argument can also be made for Rudolph's success in that the new Offensive Coordinator is Norv Turner--a coach whose style often features the TE. Turner's work last season in Cleveland was very good for their end Jordan Cameron, and already considered a trustworthy receiver, Rudolph could be a regular target this year in Minnesota.
Meanwhile, Bennett performed well last year, and the Bears offense may be one of the best in the league this season.
So, if you waited to draft a TE, no worries; just select one like the three mentioned above, and then add depth with someone like the old reliable Heath Miller of the Steelers or popular sleeper pick Colts' Dwayne Allen.
I have been mock drafting experimenting with both parts of the approach--either prioritize a TE very early or waiting until late--and have been happy with my finished roster.
Lately, I have been reading and listening to lots of the experts talk draft strategy.
With TEs, everyone likes Jimmy Graham, but some favor Rob Gronkowski and expect him to regain his previous superstar form, while still other experts recommend Broncos end Julius Thomas as the one to target--that another year working with Peyton Manning, combined with his value at the overall ranking of #42 , are too appealing to pass on.
Whichever TE that you think will be best this season, one draft strategy prevails among the experts.
It is a two-pronged approach where you either:
- Draft Graham, Gronk, or Thomas early and be happy that the other owners in your league will be taking more risks on what is left, or
- Wait… then wait…. then wait some more… Finally grab a couple of the tight ends from the pile that is left like: Washington's Jordan Reed, Kyle Rudolph of the Vikings, or Chicago TE Martellus Bennett.
Though more risky, the latter option still has potential.
I loved watching Reed play last year. Good hands and gets open. The scare with him is injuries.
An argument can also be made for Rudolph's success in that the new Offensive Coordinator is Norv Turner--a coach whose style often features the TE. Turner's work last season in Cleveland was very good for their end Jordan Cameron, and already considered a trustworthy receiver, Rudolph could be a regular target this year in Minnesota.
Meanwhile, Bennett performed well last year, and the Bears offense may be one of the best in the league this season.
So, if you waited to draft a TE, no worries; just select one like the three mentioned above, and then add depth with someone like the old reliable Heath Miller of the Steelers or popular sleeper pick Colts' Dwayne Allen.
I have been mock drafting experimenting with both parts of the approach--either prioritize a TE very early or waiting until late--and have been happy with my finished roster.
Monday, July 28, 2014
Need One New Fantasy Football Owner for League
Want to join a fantasy football league?
Try mine!
I have one opening for the upcoming season.
We have a great bunch of established owners including Chuck from Incessant Ramblings, Pat Hatt of It's Rhyme Time , and Lisa of the Mommy's Nest.
This is the league's fourth season, we play for free as in fun/bragging rights, and use NFL.com.
Never played before?
That is ok too--we welcome players at any experience level.
If you are interested or have questions, just send an email to theslamdunktrove@gmail.com or holler at me on Twitter at: slamdunktrove .
Note: More about the league: it is 10 teams, redraft, standard scoring, and standard lineups. The one exception is instead of the traditional 2 running backs and 3 receivers in the starting lineup, we use 2 running backs, 2 receivers and one flex player (who can either be another running back or receiver).
Try mine!
I have one opening for the upcoming season.
We have a great bunch of established owners including Chuck from Incessant Ramblings, Pat Hatt of It's Rhyme Time , and Lisa of the Mommy's Nest.
This is the league's fourth season, we play for free as in fun/bragging rights, and use NFL.com.
Never played before?
That is ok too--we welcome players at any experience level.
If you are interested or have questions, just send an email to theslamdunktrove@gmail.com or holler at me on Twitter at: slamdunktrove .
Note: More about the league: it is 10 teams, redraft, standard scoring, and standard lineups. The one exception is instead of the traditional 2 running backs and 3 receivers in the starting lineup, we use 2 running backs, 2 receivers and one flex player (who can either be another running back or receiver).
Friday, July 25, 2014
Fantasy Projections for Two Cincinnati Bengals
This week, FantasyPros carried an article by Evan Silva of Rotoworld on players to avoid early and/or all together in fantasy football 2014.
Two observations:
1) QB ANDY DALTON
Silva said that QB Dalton finished 3rd in fantasy QB scoring last year. That is a mistake in that Dalton did not finish 3rd, but I was still surprised to find that Dalton finished 5th overall. A new offensive coordinator, lots of pressure to perform, and stats that seemed to be inflated at the end of the year by the atypical pass-pass-pass offense would all seem to support Silva's claim that Dalton will not be as effective in 2014.
2) RB GIOVANI BERNARD
Staying with the Bengals, Silva sees Bernard as overvalued in the second round of most drafts. He supports his arguments with Bernard's limited 14 touch average last year, and that the team drafted competition in the second round with RB Jeremy Hill. Silva sees Hill as more of a touchdown threat and Bernard not worthy of the high pick that should give you RB1 numbers.
Silva's arguments are valid, but I counter:
There is no debate that Giovani Bernard is a talented athlete who can produce, but I think the new run-focused offense, Bernard's experience as a second-year player, and Bernard's versatility in the run and pass game will translate into an excellent 2014 fantasy season.
Evidently, I am not alone.
Posted to Silva's home site Rotoworld, Paul Dehner, Jr. projects Bernard to have at least 230 carries and 70 catches.
The arguments in Evan Silva's article are well supported and you can read it by clicking here.
Two observations:
1) QB ANDY DALTON
Silva said that QB Dalton finished 3rd in fantasy QB scoring last year. That is a mistake in that Dalton did not finish 3rd, but I was still surprised to find that Dalton finished 5th overall. A new offensive coordinator, lots of pressure to perform, and stats that seemed to be inflated at the end of the year by the atypical pass-pass-pass offense would all seem to support Silva's claim that Dalton will not be as effective in 2014.
2) RB GIOVANI BERNARD
Staying with the Bengals, Silva sees Bernard as overvalued in the second round of most drafts. He supports his arguments with Bernard's limited 14 touch average last year, and that the team drafted competition in the second round with RB Jeremy Hill. Silva sees Hill as more of a touchdown threat and Bernard not worthy of the high pick that should give you RB1 numbers.
Silva's arguments are valid, but I counter:
- As a rookie, Bernard's coaches were trying to limit his touches per game so that he could remain healthy; they will likely be more apt to let him play this year
- As Bernard became more comfortable with the playbook and decision-making, he became more involved in the offense--a trend supported by his second-half of the season targets per game
- New Offensive Coordinator Hue Jackson will implement a run first attack; which should translate into more carries for RBs. Also, I can't think of a roster without competition at RB. General Managers are smart enough to know that having multiple RBs that can be trusted by coaches is a necessity in today's NFL
- Silva focuses on the 14 touch average for Bernard per game, but his average over the final 8 games was actually 16 touches and 17 targets. This allowed for more production late
- He also speculates that RB Hill will steal goal-line touches as the heavier back. I need more evidence of this before buying it. As a rookie, Hill will have lots to learn and prove. And if this is true, it will be something we should see from reports in training camp and in the preseason games. And just because Bernard is short (5'8'') does not necessarily mean he is a small back. At 208 lbs., Bernard is the same weight as LeSean McCoy and is 10 lbs. heavier than Jamaal Charles--two backs with similar skills sets who are not removed from the game when their team is on the goal line
There is no debate that Giovani Bernard is a talented athlete who can produce, but I think the new run-focused offense, Bernard's experience as a second-year player, and Bernard's versatility in the run and pass game will translate into an excellent 2014 fantasy season.
Evidently, I am not alone.
Posted to Silva's home site Rotoworld, Paul Dehner, Jr. projects Bernard to have at least 230 carries and 70 catches.
The arguments in Evan Silva's article are well supported and you can read it by clicking here.
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
Opportunities: Seahawks Offense and Darren Sproles
I listened to Sigmund Bloom and Matt Waldman's recent podcast (7/17/2014), and here are two relevant points discussed:
Seahawks O
By the numbers, the Seahawks offense in 2013 was more balanced than most want to admit. QB Russell Wilson showed maturity despite not having his full compliment of WR weapons last year. Waldman expects Wilson to improve and sees fantasy value, not only in the second-year signal caller, but in WRs Harvin and Rice as well.
Sproles
The Eagles RB Darren Sproles represents an excellent value pick at his current draft position (ADP #85 at NFL.com). They remind us that Coach Chip Kelly aggressively pursued Sproles in the off-season, and though it seems like he faces lots of competition for touches in Philly, the veteran has always made the most of his opportunities when he has the ball. Waldman argues that Kelly certainly has a plan for Sproles, and that bargain price, Sproles should be on your fantasy radar.
Seahawks O
By the numbers, the Seahawks offense in 2013 was more balanced than most want to admit. QB Russell Wilson showed maturity despite not having his full compliment of WR weapons last year. Waldman expects Wilson to improve and sees fantasy value, not only in the second-year signal caller, but in WRs Harvin and Rice as well.
Sproles
The Eagles RB Darren Sproles represents an excellent value pick at his current draft position (ADP #85 at NFL.com). They remind us that Coach Chip Kelly aggressively pursued Sproles in the off-season, and though it seems like he faces lots of competition for touches in Philly, the veteran has always made the most of his opportunities when he has the ball. Waldman argues that Kelly certainly has a plan for Sproles, and that bargain price, Sproles should be on your fantasy radar.
Saturday, July 19, 2014
On FantasyPros Draft Wizard
Note: I am in no way compensated for the opinions expressed below.
__________________________________
I gave FantasyPros Draft Wizard a try tonight and was impressed.
To prepare for upcoming fantasy seasons, I'll use NFL.com's mock draft tool and go against human and computer opponents--changing my selection spot to develop strategies for drafting from the beginning, middle, and end.
But I wanted to see what FantasyPros offered.
The Draft Wizard's start-up menu is easy to use, and the free basic service allows the individual to set the number of teams, the lineup requirements, scoring system, and where you pick.
Since their mock drafts have you compete against automated opponents, the drafting is fast.
I completed a full 15 round and 10 team draft in less than 10 minutes--certainly an advantage as compared to waiting (and waiting and waiting...) for other humans to choose.
My favorite option though is the evaluation tool. Once finished, the program will analyze your starters, bench, and overall team and then compare your projected points versus the other computer controlled teams.
In rating my mock draft (10 teams and picking from #3), Draft Wizard loved my starters, but believed I drafted poorly in terms of my substitutes.
Evidently, the system thought I took too many flyers once my starting lineup was secured.
One person's trash, another's treasure, right?
Upgrading to the "pro feature" allows access to more analytical tools and advice, and once the draft is completed, the system will allow you to back-up at any point in the draft, change your pick, and then finished a revised draft.
Overall, I'd recommend the Draft Wizard as a complimentary tool in developing your draft strategy. The program is fast, easy to use, and helpful in identifying what works best in the different scenarios.
I don't think Draft Wizard should replace NFL.com or whatever site you prefer for mock drafting with humans.
Yes, other people can be annoying, but the unpredictable nature of fantasy football makes practice drafts alongside Bubba in Atlanta, Sarah in NYC, or Robbie in some sparsely populated desert town necessary to best prepare you for the real life confusion--better known as your league's draft day.
You can try FantasyPros Draft Wizard by clicking here.
__________________________________
I gave FantasyPros Draft Wizard a try tonight and was impressed.
To prepare for upcoming fantasy seasons, I'll use NFL.com's mock draft tool and go against human and computer opponents--changing my selection spot to develop strategies for drafting from the beginning, middle, and end.
But I wanted to see what FantasyPros offered.
The Draft Wizard's start-up menu is easy to use, and the free basic service allows the individual to set the number of teams, the lineup requirements, scoring system, and where you pick.
Since their mock drafts have you compete against automated opponents, the drafting is fast.
I completed a full 15 round and 10 team draft in less than 10 minutes--certainly an advantage as compared to waiting (and waiting and waiting...) for other humans to choose.
My favorite option though is the evaluation tool. Once finished, the program will analyze your starters, bench, and overall team and then compare your projected points versus the other computer controlled teams.
In rating my mock draft (10 teams and picking from #3), Draft Wizard loved my starters, but believed I drafted poorly in terms of my substitutes.
Evidently, the system thought I took too many flyers once my starting lineup was secured.
One person's trash, another's treasure, right?
Upgrading to the "pro feature" allows access to more analytical tools and advice, and once the draft is completed, the system will allow you to back-up at any point in the draft, change your pick, and then finished a revised draft.
Overall, I'd recommend the Draft Wizard as a complimentary tool in developing your draft strategy. The program is fast, easy to use, and helpful in identifying what works best in the different scenarios.
I don't think Draft Wizard should replace NFL.com or whatever site you prefer for mock drafting with humans.
Yes, other people can be annoying, but the unpredictable nature of fantasy football makes practice drafts alongside Bubba in Atlanta, Sarah in NYC, or Robbie in some sparsely populated desert town necessary to best prepare you for the real life confusion--better known as your league's draft day.
You can try FantasyPros Draft Wizard by clicking here.
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
Chris Johnson or Bishop Sankey?
If I am looking for a RB in the fifth round of a 10 team draft (standard scoring with a flex player), should I select Chris Johnson or Bishop Sankey?
Initially with my mock draft practicing, I was going with Sankey of the Titans (#47 overall on NFL.com).
He was the first RB selected in this year's NFL draft; certainly a great resume and impressive skills.
With Tennessee, Sankey should be able to immediately win the starting job, and get lots of touches this year as free agent RB Dexter McCluster is more of a specialist and RB Shonn Greene is recovering from a knee injury and a less than impressive season in 2013.
But what about former Titan and now Jets starter Chris Johnson (#49 overall on NFL.com)?
Expert Tom Kessinich was recently a guest on Sigmund Bloom's fantasy football podcast and argued Johnson over Sankey.
His reasoning was:
In contrast to those arguments, I think it is reasonable to question Johnson as a potential declining star--those great RBs seem to fall so quickly and his last few years with the Titans certainly leave question marks.
I am not sold on Johnson yet, but Kessinich's points are valid.
I always like to watch the reports out of training camp to help me finalize my drafting decisions, and I'll keep a close eye on these two so that I can make an educated decision on which will be the better performer this year.
Initially with my mock draft practicing, I was going with Sankey of the Titans (#47 overall on NFL.com).
He was the first RB selected in this year's NFL draft; certainly a great resume and impressive skills.
With Tennessee, Sankey should be able to immediately win the starting job, and get lots of touches this year as free agent RB Dexter McCluster is more of a specialist and RB Shonn Greene is recovering from a knee injury and a less than impressive season in 2013.
But what about former Titan and now Jets starter Chris Johnson (#49 overall on NFL.com)?
Expert Tom Kessinich was recently a guest on Sigmund Bloom's fantasy football podcast and argued Johnson over Sankey.
His reasoning was:
- Johnson has proven that he can excel at the highest level while Sankey has not
- Sankey had a heavy workload in his last two years of college, and that Kessinich was not that impressed with what he displayed on the field
- Johnson produced with some terrible Titans' offenses and is very motivated to show his talents
- Johnson's new coach is committed to the running game and their is more talent on offense in New York
In contrast to those arguments, I think it is reasonable to question Johnson as a potential declining star--those great RBs seem to fall so quickly and his last few years with the Titans certainly leave question marks.
I am not sold on Johnson yet, but Kessinich's points are valid.
I always like to watch the reports out of training camp to help me finalize my drafting decisions, and I'll keep a close eye on these two so that I can make an educated decision on which will be the better performer this year.
Wednesday, July 9, 2014
Fantasy Outlook for C.J. Spiller
If you are looking for a great value pick in the 4th round or so (10 team draft), consider RB C.J. Spiller of the Bills.
NFL.com has him ranked at #39 and ESPN.com has him at #40--meaning that you can still select three solids before grabbing Spiller.
For those like me who drafted Spiller in the Top 10 last year only to watch him suffer through an injury plagued season, he is still the same explosive runner that he was in 2012, but with an off-season to heal his ankle.
An ESPN writer makes the valid point that Bills' RB Fred Jackson had a big workload in 2013, and the team acquired Bryce Brown as well, but I see just about every other team in the current NFL stockpiling RB options.
And Jackson got a lot of work especially in games where Spiller was injured. Spiller repeatedly would find openings, but lacked explosion and too many times would come up limping--meaning that Jackson's number was being called much more than planned.
Another reason to like Spiller?
Buffalo loves to run the ball, and he is in the final year of his contract.
The Bills finished 5th in the league last season in rushing attempts--only 13 attempts behind the second ranked team in Miami. This is quite an accomplishment considering the subpar quarterback play last season which prevented the passing game from helping them run the ball much at all.
I expect the Bills' offense to be better, they will continue to emphasize a ground attack featuring RBs, and Spiller is in a contract year. He will have extra incentive to show off his excellent speed, quickness, and remind people that he can catch the ball as well.
I believe Spiller could post big numbers again in 2014.
I recommend grabbing him in the 4th round if available.
NFL.com has him ranked at #39 and ESPN.com has him at #40--meaning that you can still select three solids before grabbing Spiller.
For those like me who drafted Spiller in the Top 10 last year only to watch him suffer through an injury plagued season, he is still the same explosive runner that he was in 2012, but with an off-season to heal his ankle.
An ESPN writer makes the valid point that Bills' RB Fred Jackson had a big workload in 2013, and the team acquired Bryce Brown as well, but I see just about every other team in the current NFL stockpiling RB options.
And Jackson got a lot of work especially in games where Spiller was injured. Spiller repeatedly would find openings, but lacked explosion and too many times would come up limping--meaning that Jackson's number was being called much more than planned.
Another reason to like Spiller?
Buffalo loves to run the ball, and he is in the final year of his contract.
The Bills finished 5th in the league last season in rushing attempts--only 13 attempts behind the second ranked team in Miami. This is quite an accomplishment considering the subpar quarterback play last season which prevented the passing game from helping them run the ball much at all.
I expect the Bills' offense to be better, they will continue to emphasize a ground attack featuring RBs, and Spiller is in a contract year. He will have extra incentive to show off his excellent speed, quickness, and remind people that he can catch the ball as well.
I believe Spiller could post big numbers again in 2014.
I recommend grabbing him in the 4th round if available.
Thursday, June 26, 2014
RB Value with the Falcons
Kimra Schleicher insights in this year's Lindy's Sports Fantasy Football 2014 are useful.
Reading her bio, she has quite the record of fantasy football success.
One sleeper that she offers is Falcons' back Devonta Freeman--arguing that with an aging Steven Jackson, he sure to see playing time soon.
Good point and I like Freeman too:
1) the Falcons have a high-powered offense that was down on its luck last season;
2) they traditionally have been effective in running the ball; and
3) not only can he run the football and catch, but he is regarded as a good blocker--no matter how much talent a rookie has, poor and/or confused blockers spend lots of time on the sidelines.
A negative could be that Freeman was in a timeshare throughout college, but that may be good in saving his body from hits.
I prefer to watch the reports after camps start in August before I try to predict which RBs and WRs are worthy of late round fliers, but Freeman is someone to watch.
I also would not forget about Jackson either. Lindy's mag has him as the #25 runner, and NFL.com lists his ADP as 100.
As long as he is healthy at the beginning of the season, a late round pick invested in Jackson, may offer points in the first half of the season as he pounds defenses.
Reading her bio, she has quite the record of fantasy football success.
One sleeper that she offers is Falcons' back Devonta Freeman--arguing that with an aging Steven Jackson, he sure to see playing time soon.
Good point and I like Freeman too:
1) the Falcons have a high-powered offense that was down on its luck last season;
2) they traditionally have been effective in running the ball; and
3) not only can he run the football and catch, but he is regarded as a good blocker--no matter how much talent a rookie has, poor and/or confused blockers spend lots of time on the sidelines.
A negative could be that Freeman was in a timeshare throughout college, but that may be good in saving his body from hits.
I prefer to watch the reports after camps start in August before I try to predict which RBs and WRs are worthy of late round fliers, but Freeman is someone to watch.
I also would not forget about Jackson either. Lindy's mag has him as the #25 runner, and NFL.com lists his ADP as 100.
As long as he is healthy at the beginning of the season, a late round pick invested in Jackson, may offer points in the first half of the season as he pounds defenses.
Monday, July 15, 2013
Undervalued: Colts Running Backs
Another fantasy football suggestion...
-------------------------------------------------------
Finding a RB mid-season in the waiver pool that touches the ball a lot is tough, so it is always wise to draft proper depth at that position.
I think one place to look for value is at the backfield in Indianapolis.
First, why should you consider a Colts RB?
This is the team that already has a strong passing game with QB Andrew Luck (7th in total passing yards in 2012) and WRs Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton. They also acquired veteran speedster Darrius Heyward-Bey to try and stretch defenses. Also, new Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton managed a run-first attack at Stanford, so expect the Colts to do more pounding the ball this season.*
So which RB?
Three guys are vying to start.
Vick Ballard averaged over 20 carries in the last 4 games of the season, and finished with almost 1,000 total yards.
Despite battling nagging injuries last season, free-agent Ahmad Bradshaw rushed for 6 touchdowns and over 1,200 total yards.
Before Ballard took over last season, former first-round draft pick Donald Brown was the starter.
I am not ready to make call as to which Colts runner will get the bulk of the carries this year, but training camp and the preseason should give us hints.
Being confident that Bradshaw (#51), Ballard (#111), and Brown (#285) are all value picks and one will most likely be the guy for Indy this year, should allow for me to draft a Colt and at the least offer my team adequate RB depth--with a potential upside of one being a weekly starter. *
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*Note: The information on Pep Hamilton is from the Sporting News Fantasy Source and player draft rankings are from NFL.com.
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Finding a RB mid-season in the waiver pool that touches the ball a lot is tough, so it is always wise to draft proper depth at that position.
I think one place to look for value is at the backfield in Indianapolis.
First, why should you consider a Colts RB?
This is the team that already has a strong passing game with QB Andrew Luck (7th in total passing yards in 2012) and WRs Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton. They also acquired veteran speedster Darrius Heyward-Bey to try and stretch defenses. Also, new Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton managed a run-first attack at Stanford, so expect the Colts to do more pounding the ball this season.*
So which RB?
Three guys are vying to start.
Vick Ballard averaged over 20 carries in the last 4 games of the season, and finished with almost 1,000 total yards.
Despite battling nagging injuries last season, free-agent Ahmad Bradshaw rushed for 6 touchdowns and over 1,200 total yards.
Before Ballard took over last season, former first-round draft pick Donald Brown was the starter.
I am not ready to make call as to which Colts runner will get the bulk of the carries this year, but training camp and the preseason should give us hints.
Being confident that Bradshaw (#51), Ballard (#111), and Brown (#285) are all value picks and one will most likely be the guy for Indy this year, should allow for me to draft a Colt and at the least offer my team adequate RB depth--with a potential upside of one being a weekly starter. *
_______________________________
*Note: The information on Pep Hamilton is from the Sporting News Fantasy Source and player draft rankings are from NFL.com.
Sunday, July 7, 2013
Undervalued: Anquan Boldin
It is fantasy football time again. For several posts, I want to discuss players that I see as over or under-valued in this year's draft.
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Anquan Boldin is currently listed as the 43rd best WR and the #116 best pick overall on NFL.com.
The 49ers top WR, Michael Crabtree, tore his achilles tendon in off-season team activities, and may be out for the season.
Short on receivers during mini-camp, the team used TE Vernon Davis as a wideout. Davis' numbers were down last year anyway, as he managed more than two catches in only one of QB Kaepernick's final seven regular season starts (though he was productive in the playoffs).
The rest of the 49ers receivers include injured Mario Manningham, and largely unfamiliar names like Kyle Williams and AJ Jenkins.
Despite being a run first team, the 49ers will want to throw the ball.
But who will be the primary option?
I believe the veteran Boldin will get plenty of targets.
He is no longer a deep-threat, but has never lost his courage to make tough catches in traffic. He has outstanding hands and is able to consistently get open. With the Ravens last year, he caught 65 balls for almost 1,000 yards and 4 TDs.
When I see a team's top receiver with the proven track record of Boldin at a draft position of #116, I say grab him.
You will then be able to laugh at your opponents when you land a starting fantasy receiver with a 12th or 13th round selection.
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Anquan Boldin is currently listed as the 43rd best WR and the #116 best pick overall on NFL.com.
The 49ers top WR, Michael Crabtree, tore his achilles tendon in off-season team activities, and may be out for the season.
Short on receivers during mini-camp, the team used TE Vernon Davis as a wideout. Davis' numbers were down last year anyway, as he managed more than two catches in only one of QB Kaepernick's final seven regular season starts (though he was productive in the playoffs).
The rest of the 49ers receivers include injured Mario Manningham, and largely unfamiliar names like Kyle Williams and AJ Jenkins.
Despite being a run first team, the 49ers will want to throw the ball.
But who will be the primary option?
I believe the veteran Boldin will get plenty of targets.
He is no longer a deep-threat, but has never lost his courage to make tough catches in traffic. He has outstanding hands and is able to consistently get open. With the Ravens last year, he caught 65 balls for almost 1,000 yards and 4 TDs.
When I see a team's top receiver with the proven track record of Boldin at a draft position of #116, I say grab him.
You will then be able to laugh at your opponents when you land a starting fantasy receiver with a 12th or 13th round selection.
Sunday, August 26, 2012
I Prefer Fantasy Drafts after the Preseason
I prefer late fantasy drafts over early ones.
So many players get injured, lose their starting jobs, or get cut during the preseason, that it makes a first week in August draft, too much of a crap-shoot for me.
For instance, I liked Matt Flynn as a late-round back-up QB--depending on my starter (like if I draft Michael Vick, I'd will certainly grab a decent second QB).
But today, it was announced that rookie Russell Wilson earned the starting QB job for the Seahawks, and Flynn will be holding a clipboard (an expensive clipboard holder at that with his $10 million guranteed).
Also, I don't go after a kicker until the end of a draft. As such, I take whomever is left--as other owners have grabbed the top rated guys.
Going into camp, I liked Texans' rookie K Randy Bullock. He was a 4th round draft pick, was almost certain to win the job, and Houston is a high-scoring offense that would give him plenty of opportunities to score (the experts had him rated anywhere from the 10th to 15th best fantasy kicker).
But also today, the Texans placed Bullock on Injured Reserve for the season due to a groin injury.
Thus, an early draft of Bullock would have left me scrambling the waiver wire for an emergency replacement (if I stay Texans then Shayne Graham may be that kicker).
In any event, fantasy drafts that are held at the end of the preseason are the best in my opinion--at least you have a clear picture of players that will compete in Week 1.
So many players get injured, lose their starting jobs, or get cut during the preseason, that it makes a first week in August draft, too much of a crap-shoot for me.
For instance, I liked Matt Flynn as a late-round back-up QB--depending on my starter (like if I draft Michael Vick, I'd will certainly grab a decent second QB).
But today, it was announced that rookie Russell Wilson earned the starting QB job for the Seahawks, and Flynn will be holding a clipboard (an expensive clipboard holder at that with his $10 million guranteed).
Also, I don't go after a kicker until the end of a draft. As such, I take whomever is left--as other owners have grabbed the top rated guys.
Going into camp, I liked Texans' rookie K Randy Bullock. He was a 4th round draft pick, was almost certain to win the job, and Houston is a high-scoring offense that would give him plenty of opportunities to score (the experts had him rated anywhere from the 10th to 15th best fantasy kicker).
But also today, the Texans placed Bullock on Injured Reserve for the season due to a groin injury.
Thus, an early draft of Bullock would have left me scrambling the waiver wire for an emergency replacement (if I stay Texans then Shayne Graham may be that kicker).
In any event, fantasy drafts that are held at the end of the preseason are the best in my opinion--at least you have a clear picture of players that will compete in Week 1.
Sunday, August 19, 2012
Back and Watch for Sliders
Back from the beach, and I am ready for football season to start.
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I noticed a couple of players sliding some on the NFL.com fantasy draft board.
Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego (from #9 to #26)
I was watching the first Charger preseason game when Mathews took a handoff, gained a few yards, and looked like he fell awkwardly.
He went to the sideline, showed no sign of being in pain, but never reentered the game. I was surprised to learn that he had broken his clavicle and may miss a few regular season contests.
Fantasy seasons are not won in week one or two. Getting Mathews at a bargain price and having him available for the bulk of your games is a plus.
Health has always been a concern for him, but he runs, he catches, his primary backup is now in Carolina, and Coach Turner wants him to be a workhorse this year.
I say take Mathews and enjoy the value selection
Isaac Redman, RB Pittsburgh (from low #70s to #84)
Redman has a hip injury and missed the last preseason game. Regular starter Rashard Mendenhall was recently activated from the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list.
What does this mean?
I say not too much.
Well, I am not high on Mendenhall this year--rehabbing his torn ACL is going to take time and I don't expect Steelers management to rush him. Redman's injury does not appear serious and he showed he has talent with the 142 total yards in last year's playoff loss (plus over 500 total yards and 3 TDs in limited regular season action).
Also, with new offensive coordinator Todd Haley, they will want to run the ball consistently and will pull the plug on QB Big Ben trying to throw for 400 yards per game--last season's predominant game plan.
I am expecting Redman to carry the ball plenty of times per contest.
So, don't get distracted with the Mendenhall or Redman news, taking him as a mid-round RB has plenty of upside.
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I noticed a couple of players sliding some on the NFL.com fantasy draft board.
Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego (from #9 to #26)
I was watching the first Charger preseason game when Mathews took a handoff, gained a few yards, and looked like he fell awkwardly.
He went to the sideline, showed no sign of being in pain, but never reentered the game. I was surprised to learn that he had broken his clavicle and may miss a few regular season contests.
Fantasy seasons are not won in week one or two. Getting Mathews at a bargain price and having him available for the bulk of your games is a plus.
Health has always been a concern for him, but he runs, he catches, his primary backup is now in Carolina, and Coach Turner wants him to be a workhorse this year.
I say take Mathews and enjoy the value selection
Isaac Redman, RB Pittsburgh (from low #70s to #84)
Redman has a hip injury and missed the last preseason game. Regular starter Rashard Mendenhall was recently activated from the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list.
What does this mean?
I say not too much.
Well, I am not high on Mendenhall this year--rehabbing his torn ACL is going to take time and I don't expect Steelers management to rush him. Redman's injury does not appear serious and he showed he has talent with the 142 total yards in last year's playoff loss (plus over 500 total yards and 3 TDs in limited regular season action).
Also, with new offensive coordinator Todd Haley, they will want to run the ball consistently and will pull the plug on QB Big Ben trying to throw for 400 yards per game--last season's predominant game plan.
I am expecting Redman to carry the ball plenty of times per contest.
So, don't get distracted with the Mendenhall or Redman news, taking him as a mid-round RB has plenty of upside.
Sunday, August 5, 2012
Interested in Joining My Fantasy Football League?
Is anyone interested in joining my fantasy football league for the upcoming season?
I have one opening for a team.
The league is ten teams, we compete for free at NFL.com, and new players are welcome (I think we currently have two first-time players).
If you are interested or have questions, just send me an email at theslamdunktrove@gmail.com .
I have one opening for a team.
The league is ten teams, we compete for free at NFL.com, and new players are welcome (I think we currently have two first-time players).
If you are interested or have questions, just send me an email at theslamdunktrove@gmail.com .
Monday, July 30, 2012
Had a Bad Day
With a new fantasy football season on the horizon, I do enjoy the funny commercials like this one from NFL.com.
The "One Giant Step" part has older boy giggling every time he sees it.
The "One Giant Step" part has older boy giggling every time he sees it.
Monday, July 16, 2012
The First Round: Who am I Iffy on?
The first round of a fantasy draft can make or break your season.
Missing on what is supposed to be a star player can cause an owner to play a constant-game of catch-up throughout the season.
Last season, I chose Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall who underperformed.
Pittsburgh finally jettisoned their lackluster running strategy after the first few games, and emphasized an air attack--which had me benching Mendenhall some weeks.
Benching your #1 pick should not happen.
So, which top player am I squeamish on this year?
From NFL.com's rankings, will Calvin Johnson (8) suffer the Madden Curse?
Can Drew Brees (6) overcome an offseason of turmoil?
Will Ryan Matthews (9) ever not be labeled a fantasy bust?
Can Maurice Jones-Drew's body last another season of pounding?
Ok, so I am a little concerned about those guys, but my biggest worry of the top five players is with RB Arian Foster (1).
Earlier this month, Foster announced that he was going vegan.
He will now forgo consuming animal products.
Now, I have nothing against anyone who chooses this path (I respect it), but it does concern me when an NFL running back announces this decision.
Such a change would require Foster to be "vegan fluent" to ensure that his body is getting enough nutrients.
Will he have time to properly monitor and adjust his diet during the busy season?
What impact will the new eating approach have on him by Week 6?
If he decides to change back to a regular diet mid-season, how long will his body need to adjust?
Foster's situation is certainly one that I'll be keeping tabs on up until draft time.
Missing on what is supposed to be a star player can cause an owner to play a constant-game of catch-up throughout the season.
Last season, I chose Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall who underperformed.
Pittsburgh finally jettisoned their lackluster running strategy after the first few games, and emphasized an air attack--which had me benching Mendenhall some weeks.
Benching your #1 pick should not happen.
So, which top player am I squeamish on this year?
From NFL.com's rankings, will Calvin Johnson (8) suffer the Madden Curse?
Can Drew Brees (6) overcome an offseason of turmoil?
Will Ryan Matthews (9) ever not be labeled a fantasy bust?
Can Maurice Jones-Drew's body last another season of pounding?
Ok, so I am a little concerned about those guys, but my biggest worry of the top five players is with RB Arian Foster (1).
Earlier this month, Foster announced that he was going vegan.
He will now forgo consuming animal products.
Now, I have nothing against anyone who chooses this path (I respect it), but it does concern me when an NFL running back announces this decision.
Such a change would require Foster to be "vegan fluent" to ensure that his body is getting enough nutrients.
Will he have time to properly monitor and adjust his diet during the busy season?
What impact will the new eating approach have on him by Week 6?
If he decides to change back to a regular diet mid-season, how long will his body need to adjust?
Foster's situation is certainly one that I'll be keeping tabs on up until draft time.
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
What Was I Thinking: The Good and the Bad of 2011
Back from a long break and ready for the season to start...
I found some hand-written notes on drafting from prior to last year's NFL season, and some of my advice sure is humorous:
2011 Selected Fantasy Football Notes
1) Grab Knowshon Moreno--new Broncos offense is run-oriented
Fortunately, I did not have a chance to draft Moreno as he struggled once again with injuries and failed to live up to expectations.
2) Avoid Broncos receivers (same thought with the run-oriented offense)
I did much better with this projection, but who would have guessed that Tebow would take the helm for the majority of Denver's games and the team would emphasize a ground-game never seen before in the NFL.
3) If Jermichael Finley is healthy, take him as your TE
Well, Finley did not stay healthy and had a disappointing year. As with Moreno, I lucked out and Finley was off the board when I was thinking TE, so I took a risk on that guy for the Saints...What is his name? Oh yeah, Jimmy Graham--and wow, what a season did Jimmy have.
4) Look at the Rams offense as there may be value at the WR
My thought was that the Rams had a new offense that would emphasize the pass. Sam Bradford was returning after a productive rookie season. So, I concluded that one of St. Louis' receivers would be a hidden star and good selection as a late round draft flyer. Wrong. The Rams stunk, dealt with numerous injuries, and anyone who followed my advice would have wasted a late round pick.
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Finding the 18 or so recommendations and evaluating them a year later was fun; I'll be sure to do it again for next season--I am always good for a laugh.
I found some hand-written notes on drafting from prior to last year's NFL season, and some of my advice sure is humorous:
2011 Selected Fantasy Football Notes
1) Grab Knowshon Moreno--new Broncos offense is run-oriented
Fortunately, I did not have a chance to draft Moreno as he struggled once again with injuries and failed to live up to expectations.
2) Avoid Broncos receivers (same thought with the run-oriented offense)
I did much better with this projection, but who would have guessed that Tebow would take the helm for the majority of Denver's games and the team would emphasize a ground-game never seen before in the NFL.
3) If Jermichael Finley is healthy, take him as your TE
Well, Finley did not stay healthy and had a disappointing year. As with Moreno, I lucked out and Finley was off the board when I was thinking TE, so I took a risk on that guy for the Saints...What is his name? Oh yeah, Jimmy Graham--and wow, what a season did Jimmy have.
4) Look at the Rams offense as there may be value at the WR
My thought was that the Rams had a new offense that would emphasize the pass. Sam Bradford was returning after a productive rookie season. So, I concluded that one of St. Louis' receivers would be a hidden star and good selection as a late round draft flyer. Wrong. The Rams stunk, dealt with numerous injuries, and anyone who followed my advice would have wasted a late round pick.
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Finding the 18 or so recommendations and evaluating them a year later was fun; I'll be sure to do it again for next season--I am always good for a laugh.
Friday, March 30, 2012
Remember Mike Goodson when Drafting
When the Raiders lost a workhorse running back in Michael Bush to the Bears, I was watching if they would pursue anyone through free agency. Bush is a good receiver, blocks well, and was the team's leading rusher last year--making most of his opportunity as a feature back while Darren McFadden was out injured.
Well, they did not sign anyone, but did make a notable trade with the Panthers today.
The Raiders acquired RB Mike Goodson for OL Bruce Campbell.
Goodson should fly under the radar going into training camp; as he only played in four games last year and rarely touched the ball.
But 2010 was a different story for Goodson, as he became the feature back, and gained over 700 total yards when the Panthers regular running backs all got hurt.
Like RB Bush, Goodson catches, blocks, and runs well--and is a good fit for a Raider coaching staff that will likely continue to emphasize their great running game.
Depending on the Raiders draft and McFadden's health, Goodson may be an excellent late round investment in a 2012 Fantasy Football Draft.
Well, they did not sign anyone, but did make a notable trade with the Panthers today.
The Raiders acquired RB Mike Goodson for OL Bruce Campbell.
Goodson should fly under the radar going into training camp; as he only played in four games last year and rarely touched the ball.
But 2010 was a different story for Goodson, as he became the feature back, and gained over 700 total yards when the Panthers regular running backs all got hurt.
Like RB Bush, Goodson catches, blocks, and runs well--and is a good fit for a Raider coaching staff that will likely continue to emphasize their great running game.
Depending on the Raiders draft and McFadden's health, Goodson may be an excellent late round investment in a 2012 Fantasy Football Draft.
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