I listened to Sigmund Bloom and Matt Waldman's recent podcast (7/17/2014), and here are two relevant points discussed:
Seahawks O
By the numbers, the Seahawks offense in 2013 was more balanced than most want to admit. QB Russell Wilson showed maturity despite not having his full compliment of WR weapons last year. Waldman expects Wilson to improve and sees fantasy value, not only in the second-year signal caller, but in WRs Harvin and Rice as well.
Sproles
The Eagles RB Darren Sproles represents an excellent value pick at his current draft position (ADP #85 at NFL.com). They remind us that Coach Chip Kelly aggressively pursued Sproles in the off-season, and though it seems like he faces lots of competition for touches in Philly, the veteran has always made the most of his opportunities when he has the ball. Waldman argues that Kelly certainly has a plan for Sproles, and that bargain price, Sproles should be on your fantasy radar.
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
Saturday, July 19, 2014
On FantasyPros Draft Wizard
Note: I am in no way compensated for the opinions expressed below.
__________________________________
I gave FantasyPros Draft Wizard a try tonight and was impressed.
To prepare for upcoming fantasy seasons, I'll use NFL.com's mock draft tool and go against human and computer opponents--changing my selection spot to develop strategies for drafting from the beginning, middle, and end.
But I wanted to see what FantasyPros offered.
The Draft Wizard's start-up menu is easy to use, and the free basic service allows the individual to set the number of teams, the lineup requirements, scoring system, and where you pick.
Since their mock drafts have you compete against automated opponents, the drafting is fast.
I completed a full 15 round and 10 team draft in less than 10 minutes--certainly an advantage as compared to waiting (and waiting and waiting...) for other humans to choose.
My favorite option though is the evaluation tool. Once finished, the program will analyze your starters, bench, and overall team and then compare your projected points versus the other computer controlled teams.
In rating my mock draft (10 teams and picking from #3), Draft Wizard loved my starters, but believed I drafted poorly in terms of my substitutes.
Evidently, the system thought I took too many flyers once my starting lineup was secured.
One person's trash, another's treasure, right?
Upgrading to the "pro feature" allows access to more analytical tools and advice, and once the draft is completed, the system will allow you to back-up at any point in the draft, change your pick, and then finished a revised draft.
Overall, I'd recommend the Draft Wizard as a complimentary tool in developing your draft strategy. The program is fast, easy to use, and helpful in identifying what works best in the different scenarios.
I don't think Draft Wizard should replace NFL.com or whatever site you prefer for mock drafting with humans.
Yes, other people can be annoying, but the unpredictable nature of fantasy football makes practice drafts alongside Bubba in Atlanta, Sarah in NYC, or Robbie in some sparsely populated desert town necessary to best prepare you for the real life confusion--better known as your league's draft day.
You can try FantasyPros Draft Wizard by clicking here.
__________________________________
I gave FantasyPros Draft Wizard a try tonight and was impressed.
To prepare for upcoming fantasy seasons, I'll use NFL.com's mock draft tool and go against human and computer opponents--changing my selection spot to develop strategies for drafting from the beginning, middle, and end.
But I wanted to see what FantasyPros offered.
The Draft Wizard's start-up menu is easy to use, and the free basic service allows the individual to set the number of teams, the lineup requirements, scoring system, and where you pick.
Since their mock drafts have you compete against automated opponents, the drafting is fast.
I completed a full 15 round and 10 team draft in less than 10 minutes--certainly an advantage as compared to waiting (and waiting and waiting...) for other humans to choose.
My favorite option though is the evaluation tool. Once finished, the program will analyze your starters, bench, and overall team and then compare your projected points versus the other computer controlled teams.
In rating my mock draft (10 teams and picking from #3), Draft Wizard loved my starters, but believed I drafted poorly in terms of my substitutes.
Evidently, the system thought I took too many flyers once my starting lineup was secured.
One person's trash, another's treasure, right?
Upgrading to the "pro feature" allows access to more analytical tools and advice, and once the draft is completed, the system will allow you to back-up at any point in the draft, change your pick, and then finished a revised draft.
Overall, I'd recommend the Draft Wizard as a complimentary tool in developing your draft strategy. The program is fast, easy to use, and helpful in identifying what works best in the different scenarios.
I don't think Draft Wizard should replace NFL.com or whatever site you prefer for mock drafting with humans.
Yes, other people can be annoying, but the unpredictable nature of fantasy football makes practice drafts alongside Bubba in Atlanta, Sarah in NYC, or Robbie in some sparsely populated desert town necessary to best prepare you for the real life confusion--better known as your league's draft day.
You can try FantasyPros Draft Wizard by clicking here.
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
Chris Johnson or Bishop Sankey?
If I am looking for a RB in the fifth round of a 10 team draft (standard scoring with a flex player), should I select Chris Johnson or Bishop Sankey?
Initially with my mock draft practicing, I was going with Sankey of the Titans (#47 overall on NFL.com).
He was the first RB selected in this year's NFL draft; certainly a great resume and impressive skills.
With Tennessee, Sankey should be able to immediately win the starting job, and get lots of touches this year as free agent RB Dexter McCluster is more of a specialist and RB Shonn Greene is recovering from a knee injury and a less than impressive season in 2013.
But what about former Titan and now Jets starter Chris Johnson (#49 overall on NFL.com)?
Expert Tom Kessinich was recently a guest on Sigmund Bloom's fantasy football podcast and argued Johnson over Sankey.
His reasoning was:
In contrast to those arguments, I think it is reasonable to question Johnson as a potential declining star--those great RBs seem to fall so quickly and his last few years with the Titans certainly leave question marks.
I am not sold on Johnson yet, but Kessinich's points are valid.
I always like to watch the reports out of training camp to help me finalize my drafting decisions, and I'll keep a close eye on these two so that I can make an educated decision on which will be the better performer this year.
Initially with my mock draft practicing, I was going with Sankey of the Titans (#47 overall on NFL.com).
He was the first RB selected in this year's NFL draft; certainly a great resume and impressive skills.
With Tennessee, Sankey should be able to immediately win the starting job, and get lots of touches this year as free agent RB Dexter McCluster is more of a specialist and RB Shonn Greene is recovering from a knee injury and a less than impressive season in 2013.
But what about former Titan and now Jets starter Chris Johnson (#49 overall on NFL.com)?
Expert Tom Kessinich was recently a guest on Sigmund Bloom's fantasy football podcast and argued Johnson over Sankey.
His reasoning was:
- Johnson has proven that he can excel at the highest level while Sankey has not
- Sankey had a heavy workload in his last two years of college, and that Kessinich was not that impressed with what he displayed on the field
- Johnson produced with some terrible Titans' offenses and is very motivated to show his talents
- Johnson's new coach is committed to the running game and their is more talent on offense in New York
In contrast to those arguments, I think it is reasonable to question Johnson as a potential declining star--those great RBs seem to fall so quickly and his last few years with the Titans certainly leave question marks.
I am not sold on Johnson yet, but Kessinich's points are valid.
I always like to watch the reports out of training camp to help me finalize my drafting decisions, and I'll keep a close eye on these two so that I can make an educated decision on which will be the better performer this year.
Wednesday, July 9, 2014
Fantasy Outlook for C.J. Spiller
If you are looking for a great value pick in the 4th round or so (10 team draft), consider RB C.J. Spiller of the Bills.
NFL.com has him ranked at #39 and ESPN.com has him at #40--meaning that you can still select three solids before grabbing Spiller.
For those like me who drafted Spiller in the Top 10 last year only to watch him suffer through an injury plagued season, he is still the same explosive runner that he was in 2012, but with an off-season to heal his ankle.
An ESPN writer makes the valid point that Bills' RB Fred Jackson had a big workload in 2013, and the team acquired Bryce Brown as well, but I see just about every other team in the current NFL stockpiling RB options.
And Jackson got a lot of work especially in games where Spiller was injured. Spiller repeatedly would find openings, but lacked explosion and too many times would come up limping--meaning that Jackson's number was being called much more than planned.
Another reason to like Spiller?
Buffalo loves to run the ball, and he is in the final year of his contract.
The Bills finished 5th in the league last season in rushing attempts--only 13 attempts behind the second ranked team in Miami. This is quite an accomplishment considering the subpar quarterback play last season which prevented the passing game from helping them run the ball much at all.
I expect the Bills' offense to be better, they will continue to emphasize a ground attack featuring RBs, and Spiller is in a contract year. He will have extra incentive to show off his excellent speed, quickness, and remind people that he can catch the ball as well.
I believe Spiller could post big numbers again in 2014.
I recommend grabbing him in the 4th round if available.
NFL.com has him ranked at #39 and ESPN.com has him at #40--meaning that you can still select three solids before grabbing Spiller.
For those like me who drafted Spiller in the Top 10 last year only to watch him suffer through an injury plagued season, he is still the same explosive runner that he was in 2012, but with an off-season to heal his ankle.
An ESPN writer makes the valid point that Bills' RB Fred Jackson had a big workload in 2013, and the team acquired Bryce Brown as well, but I see just about every other team in the current NFL stockpiling RB options.
And Jackson got a lot of work especially in games where Spiller was injured. Spiller repeatedly would find openings, but lacked explosion and too many times would come up limping--meaning that Jackson's number was being called much more than planned.
Another reason to like Spiller?
Buffalo loves to run the ball, and he is in the final year of his contract.
The Bills finished 5th in the league last season in rushing attempts--only 13 attempts behind the second ranked team in Miami. This is quite an accomplishment considering the subpar quarterback play last season which prevented the passing game from helping them run the ball much at all.
I expect the Bills' offense to be better, they will continue to emphasize a ground attack featuring RBs, and Spiller is in a contract year. He will have extra incentive to show off his excellent speed, quickness, and remind people that he can catch the ball as well.
I believe Spiller could post big numbers again in 2014.
I recommend grabbing him in the 4th round if available.
Monday, June 30, 2014
Joe Delaney Tribute
Last year, the Kansas City Chiefs released a tribute video to the late great Joe Delaney.
Great talent. Special person.
Joe's story is nothing short of inspirational.
You can watch the video by clicking here and going to the Chiefs Kingdom homepage.
The intro is a bit much (if you are a non-KC fan), the video is a little too long, and the sponsor breaks are annoying, but they tell his story well.
Great talent. Special person.
Joe's story is nothing short of inspirational.
You can watch the video by clicking here and going to the Chiefs Kingdom homepage.
The intro is a bit much (if you are a non-KC fan), the video is a little too long, and the sponsor breaks are annoying, but they tell his story well.
Thursday, June 26, 2014
RB Value with the Falcons
Kimra Schleicher insights in this year's Lindy's Sports Fantasy Football 2014 are useful.
Reading her bio, she has quite the record of fantasy football success.
One sleeper that she offers is Falcons' back Devonta Freeman--arguing that with an aging Steven Jackson, he sure to see playing time soon.
Good point and I like Freeman too:
1) the Falcons have a high-powered offense that was down on its luck last season;
2) they traditionally have been effective in running the ball; and
3) not only can he run the football and catch, but he is regarded as a good blocker--no matter how much talent a rookie has, poor and/or confused blockers spend lots of time on the sidelines.
A negative could be that Freeman was in a timeshare throughout college, but that may be good in saving his body from hits.
I prefer to watch the reports after camps start in August before I try to predict which RBs and WRs are worthy of late round fliers, but Freeman is someone to watch.
I also would not forget about Jackson either. Lindy's mag has him as the #25 runner, and NFL.com lists his ADP as 100.
As long as he is healthy at the beginning of the season, a late round pick invested in Jackson, may offer points in the first half of the season as he pounds defenses.
Reading her bio, she has quite the record of fantasy football success.
One sleeper that she offers is Falcons' back Devonta Freeman--arguing that with an aging Steven Jackson, he sure to see playing time soon.
Good point and I like Freeman too:
1) the Falcons have a high-powered offense that was down on its luck last season;
2) they traditionally have been effective in running the ball; and
3) not only can he run the football and catch, but he is regarded as a good blocker--no matter how much talent a rookie has, poor and/or confused blockers spend lots of time on the sidelines.
A negative could be that Freeman was in a timeshare throughout college, but that may be good in saving his body from hits.
I prefer to watch the reports after camps start in August before I try to predict which RBs and WRs are worthy of late round fliers, but Freeman is someone to watch.
I also would not forget about Jackson either. Lindy's mag has him as the #25 runner, and NFL.com lists his ADP as 100.
As long as he is healthy at the beginning of the season, a late round pick invested in Jackson, may offer points in the first half of the season as he pounds defenses.
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
My NFL Mock Draft 2014
Every year, I project the top 10 picks in the NFL draft.
For each pick that I miss, I owe my son and daughter a quarter each.
And yes, I do end up paying them every year--some drafts more than others.
In any event, here goes for 2014...
1) TEXANS: DE Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina
Best athlete in the draft. The only question is whether the Texans select him or trade down and collect picks from a team that is smitten with Clowney. I think they wait on a QB because Clowney is too good to pass.
2) TRADE (RAMS TO FALCONS): LB Khalil Mack, Buffalo
The Rams have been waiting to trade this pick since they acquired it. St. Louis' management is smart, and is bringing in all the top players as a smoke screen to make us think they may draft at #2. I say don't buy it. They want an OT and are waiting for the best offer to then drop back. I see either the Bills, Browns, or Falcons moving up here. The Falcons have shown they are not afraid to take risks and their defense sure could use an all-pro level talent like Mack.
3) JAGUARS: WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson
Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley has been impressive. Last season, he rallied a lackluster Jags roster and had them for the most part competitive. Free agents considering teams have spoken highly of the Jags coaching staff--as it is tough enough to lure quality players when your team's recent success is miniscule. In any event, the Jags need a QB, but with WR Blackmon suspended and his career in doubt, I don't think they will pass up on a talent like Watkins. I would not be surprised though, if they entertain trade offers and collect a ransom to move back--someone else will grab Watkins if he is still on the board here.
4) BROWNS: QB Blake Bortles, Central Florida
The experts have the Browns selecting any number of players at this #4. The team has a good defense and is assembling talent on offense. WR Josh Gordon's performance last year was one of the best in NFL history considering the below average QBs who were throwing to him. As such, look for the Browns to emerge from the "we are not taking a QB" smoke screen and grab a long-term signal-caller in Bortles. I see him as a big tough guy--something that will fit this blue-collar and cold weather city well. I love Bortles' confidence, and I think a team like Cleveland is looking for that as well.
5) RAIDERS: T Greg Robinson, Auburn
Looking for a more conservative pick now that Mr. Davis is no longer making the moves, I see the Raiders going for a boring "sure thing." If Robinson is there, they take him. Experts believe he is the best long-term star at OT in this draft.
6) RAMS (From FALCONS): T Taylor Lewan, Michigan
Richer with picks after the trade, the Rams will go with the best OT on the board. If Robinson is there, they take him, but I think they will favor Lewan's nastiness over Matthews.
7) BUCCANEERS: T Jake Matthews Texas A&M
My favorite team--for better or for worse. Early projections had LB Mack still available for the Bucs here, but that is a distant memory. New head coach, Lovie Smith, is a defensive guy. They want defense help, but I think they will wait when either Lewan or Matthew is available. I see them grabbing the A&M OT. Lots of stories late on the owners pushing for Manziel, but I'd be surprised if the conservative Smith agrees to that dice roll.
8) TRADE (VIKINGS TO TITANS): QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
I think the Vikings are afraid of the risk in selecting Manziel. If Bortles is still here, they take him; otherwise they look for a trading partner. I see the Titans willing to move up and make an immediate splash with a new coach. Locker is the immediate starter, but Manziel will be taking over the spot soon enough. Titans fans will be energized for sure if this happens.
9) BILLS: TE Eric Ebron, North Carolina
I was between WR Evans and TE Ebron, but I think the Bills want a player who can make an immediate impact and that is Ebron. Tall and athletic, the TE will force defensive coordinators to game plan against him, which will allow the Bills to run more easily; something they want to do with their two-headed running back monster anyway.
10) LIONS: CB Darqueze Dennard, Michigan St.
Needing secondary help and unwilling to sacrifice picks to move up for an elite talent, I see the Lions taking the best DB on their board. I like OSU's CB Gilbert, but I think they will go with an outstanding local cover guy in Dennard.
Bonus Pick: 31) BRONCOS: G Xavier Su'A-Filo, UCLA
My son's fav team is the Broncos, so I pick for them as well. They either go LB or OL here. I see Denver's strategy as maximize the chance that Peyton succeeds now, so look for them to take the best OL available and Su'A-Filo could be that.
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Note: All player links are too Walter Football's scouting report. Every year, their group does an outstanding job of breaking down the players and teams.
For each pick that I miss, I owe my son and daughter a quarter each.
And yes, I do end up paying them every year--some drafts more than others.
In any event, here goes for 2014...
1) TEXANS: DE Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina
Best athlete in the draft. The only question is whether the Texans select him or trade down and collect picks from a team that is smitten with Clowney. I think they wait on a QB because Clowney is too good to pass.
2) TRADE (RAMS TO FALCONS): LB Khalil Mack, Buffalo
The Rams have been waiting to trade this pick since they acquired it. St. Louis' management is smart, and is bringing in all the top players as a smoke screen to make us think they may draft at #2. I say don't buy it. They want an OT and are waiting for the best offer to then drop back. I see either the Bills, Browns, or Falcons moving up here. The Falcons have shown they are not afraid to take risks and their defense sure could use an all-pro level talent like Mack.
3) JAGUARS: WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson
Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley has been impressive. Last season, he rallied a lackluster Jags roster and had them for the most part competitive. Free agents considering teams have spoken highly of the Jags coaching staff--as it is tough enough to lure quality players when your team's recent success is miniscule. In any event, the Jags need a QB, but with WR Blackmon suspended and his career in doubt, I don't think they will pass up on a talent like Watkins. I would not be surprised though, if they entertain trade offers and collect a ransom to move back--someone else will grab Watkins if he is still on the board here.
4) BROWNS: QB Blake Bortles, Central Florida
The experts have the Browns selecting any number of players at this #4. The team has a good defense and is assembling talent on offense. WR Josh Gordon's performance last year was one of the best in NFL history considering the below average QBs who were throwing to him. As such, look for the Browns to emerge from the "we are not taking a QB" smoke screen and grab a long-term signal-caller in Bortles. I see him as a big tough guy--something that will fit this blue-collar and cold weather city well. I love Bortles' confidence, and I think a team like Cleveland is looking for that as well.
5) RAIDERS: T Greg Robinson, Auburn
Looking for a more conservative pick now that Mr. Davis is no longer making the moves, I see the Raiders going for a boring "sure thing." If Robinson is there, they take him. Experts believe he is the best long-term star at OT in this draft.
6) RAMS (From FALCONS): T Taylor Lewan, Michigan
Richer with picks after the trade, the Rams will go with the best OT on the board. If Robinson is there, they take him, but I think they will favor Lewan's nastiness over Matthews.
7) BUCCANEERS: T Jake Matthews Texas A&M
My favorite team--for better or for worse. Early projections had LB Mack still available for the Bucs here, but that is a distant memory. New head coach, Lovie Smith, is a defensive guy. They want defense help, but I think they will wait when either Lewan or Matthew is available. I see them grabbing the A&M OT. Lots of stories late on the owners pushing for Manziel, but I'd be surprised if the conservative Smith agrees to that dice roll.
8) TRADE (VIKINGS TO TITANS): QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
I think the Vikings are afraid of the risk in selecting Manziel. If Bortles is still here, they take him; otherwise they look for a trading partner. I see the Titans willing to move up and make an immediate splash with a new coach. Locker is the immediate starter, but Manziel will be taking over the spot soon enough. Titans fans will be energized for sure if this happens.
9) BILLS: TE Eric Ebron, North Carolina
I was between WR Evans and TE Ebron, but I think the Bills want a player who can make an immediate impact and that is Ebron. Tall and athletic, the TE will force defensive coordinators to game plan against him, which will allow the Bills to run more easily; something they want to do with their two-headed running back monster anyway.
10) LIONS: CB Darqueze Dennard, Michigan St.
Needing secondary help and unwilling to sacrifice picks to move up for an elite talent, I see the Lions taking the best DB on their board. I like OSU's CB Gilbert, but I think they will go with an outstanding local cover guy in Dennard.
Bonus Pick: 31) BRONCOS: G Xavier Su'A-Filo, UCLA
My son's fav team is the Broncos, so I pick for them as well. They either go LB or OL here. I see Denver's strategy as maximize the chance that Peyton succeeds now, so look for them to take the best OL available and Su'A-Filo could be that.
----------------------------
Note: All player links are too Walter Football's scouting report. Every year, their group does an outstanding job of breaking down the players and teams.
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