Fantasy football analyst John Paulsen, on his July 7th 4for4 Podcast, made an informative observation about the Broncos offense that could be helpful in selecting a productive late round WR.
For fantasy WRs, I like to try and predict productive offenses, and then grab a third receiver or perhaps someone who is competing for a starting job in the preseason from one of those teams. The idea being that high scoring offenses will create opportunities for lots of players, and QBs who spread the ball around, can make that second or third WR a solid fantasy starter.
Recently, the Broncos have been one of those high octane offenses. I have been attracted to anyone that is on the field regularly with Peyton Manning.
But is that a viable strategy for this season?
Paulsen observes that the Broncos slowed the offense down significantly after Manning's injury late last year. That new coach Gary Kubiak favors a more balanced run-pass offense, as opposed to Manning's no-huddle pass and fireworks show.
Also, Kubiak prefers to run two TE formations that better support the running game. If so, this would mean only two WRs regularly in the game for Denver: Thomas and Sanders.
Who then would be the third WR left on the bench?
Cody Latimer.
In early 10-team mock drafts (2 WR, 2 RB, & 1 WR/RB flex), I liked grabbing Latimer (#105 ADP on NFL.com) as a last player reserve player, but Paulsen's observations have me reconsidering that idea.
Do I really want Latimer if he is going to watching much of the action from the sideline with a Gatorade?
If Paulsen's observations hold true, I would be better off taking a flyer pick on Eagles rookie Nelson Agholor (#103 ADP), Davante Adams (#193 ADP, Packers), or Mohammed Sanu (#185 ADP, Bengals).
Saturday, July 18, 2015
Monday, July 13, 2015
Valuing Stewart and Green
I have been practicing fantasy drafts using NFL.com for a few weeks now (I know, I am such a goob), and here are a couple of observations thus far:
OVERVALUED
Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart (#37 overall, ADP = 39.29)
As a disclaimer, I must confess to have had Stewart on more than one fantasy team over the years. He was once great, and certainly has performed at a high level in the NFL. Unfortunately, he has missed 18 games in the last three seasons and historically his coaches have preferred using a running back-by committee-approach. With a 3rd or 4th pick in a 10 team draft, I want someone with much less risk attached than Stewart. I am actually more excited to see who the #2 RB on the Panthers depth chart will be. Rookie Cameron Artis-Payne may be much more appealing as a late round flyer or waiver wire claim if Stewart is unable to perform. I will be watching both of these RBs in training camp.
UNDERVALUED
Chargers TE LaDarius Green (#210 overall, ADP = 149.95)
It can be difficult for fantasy football fans to hear a name that burned them before. Green was a hot item for some of the experts in 2013--a few even ranked him higher than future hall of fame TE Antonio Gates. But 2014 came and went , and Green's 19 catches and zero touchdowns left supporters wondering what went wrong. Well 2015 is a fresh start. Green is still big, fast, and has good hands. Two events have also added to Green's appeal: starter Gates is suspended for the first four games and this is a contract year for Green. In addition, the Chargers offense looks unsettled as a rookie RB should get the starting nod, and a committee of receivers (none with a wow factor) will be vying for targets. Green's presence as a large receiver and his knowledge of the offense and QB Rivers, may make him a promising target--at least initially. Certainly, Green is worth consideration for fantasy owners unable to secure Gronk, Graham or Olsen and are looking for a TE gem late.
More on the way...
OVERVALUED
Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart (#37 overall, ADP = 39.29)
As a disclaimer, I must confess to have had Stewart on more than one fantasy team over the years. He was once great, and certainly has performed at a high level in the NFL. Unfortunately, he has missed 18 games in the last three seasons and historically his coaches have preferred using a running back-by committee-approach. With a 3rd or 4th pick in a 10 team draft, I want someone with much less risk attached than Stewart. I am actually more excited to see who the #2 RB on the Panthers depth chart will be. Rookie Cameron Artis-Payne may be much more appealing as a late round flyer or waiver wire claim if Stewart is unable to perform. I will be watching both of these RBs in training camp.
UNDERVALUED
Chargers TE LaDarius Green (#210 overall, ADP = 149.95)
It can be difficult for fantasy football fans to hear a name that burned them before. Green was a hot item for some of the experts in 2013--a few even ranked him higher than future hall of fame TE Antonio Gates. But 2014 came and went , and Green's 19 catches and zero touchdowns left supporters wondering what went wrong. Well 2015 is a fresh start. Green is still big, fast, and has good hands. Two events have also added to Green's appeal: starter Gates is suspended for the first four games and this is a contract year for Green. In addition, the Chargers offense looks unsettled as a rookie RB should get the starting nod, and a committee of receivers (none with a wow factor) will be vying for targets. Green's presence as a large receiver and his knowledge of the offense and QB Rivers, may make him a promising target--at least initially. Certainly, Green is worth consideration for fantasy owners unable to secure Gronk, Graham or Olsen and are looking for a TE gem late.
More on the way...
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