Friday, July 29, 2011

On Three WR Signings

Here are some notes on three receiver signings from this week:

Sidney Rice/Seahawks (Downgrade past 65)

Rice followed up a fantastic 2009 with an injury-plagued season limiting him to 6 games.  Not only will we have to watch his continued hip recovery, but his new team features QBs Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst who are a significant step down from Brett Favre (now that statement shows my superior IQ or lack thereof). 

The offense should struggle early if not all season, resulting in limited opportunities for Rice. 

Steve Breaston/Chiefs (Upgrade from 151)

Breaston missed several games last year due to an injured knee, but still managed to catch 47 passes for 718 years and a touchdown--well done for a team that featured the worst quarterback situation in the NFL.  In 2008, a healthy Breaston with a good QB and opposite star receiver Larry Fitzgerald, totalled over 1,000 yards receiving. 

Could he enjoy success in KC with Cassel and playing opposite Dwayne Bowe? 

It will take first round pick Jonathan Baldwin some time to adjust to the pros (with no team-led off-season), so Breaston will certainly get opportunities--and with a five year deal, KC obviously sees him as part of the future.

Santonio Holmes/Jets (Upgrade from 49)

With Holmes resigned and last year's counterpart not (Braylon Edwards), expect him to build on his 2010 benchmark of exceptional stats garnered in less than a full season.  If he played a full season last year, Holmes would have likely had more than 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns. 

Though the Jets are a favorite in the AFC, and they have a run-first offense, Holmes has great hands and break-away speed that would be a gem to select with a fantasy seventh rounder or so--confidently pass on the better ranked Brandon Lloyd to take Holmes. 

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Seahawks Quarterback Moves: What to Expect

What do the Seahawks' moves and rumored moves for their 2011 quarterbacks (dumping Matt Hasselbeck, signing Tarvaris Jackson, and reportedly pursuing Matt Leinart) mean to fantasy footballers?

Well, besides leaving Seattle fantasy football fans with an upset stomach?

Expect a sputtering/slow start to their offense, and as a result, avoid any and all Seattle offensive players until the end of your draft. 

I mean Marshawn Lynch, Mike Williams, John Carlson, Golden Tate, Olindo Mare or anyone else added to the roster. 

In contrast, while the Seahawks' offense tries to gain traction early, it may be an opportunity for those who play matchups with team defense--meaning the 49ers, Steelers, and Cardinals defenders could feast on the below average quarterbacking.

Monday, July 25, 2011

Two Players Who May Get Cut: What it Means

Last week, Gregg Rosental of ProFootballTalk, wrote a good article: 24 Offensive Players that Could Get Cut.

The usual suspects reside at the top of the list--Vince Young, Reggie Bush, and Donovan McNabb--but I am more interested in the last few players named.

Rosenthal lists Bronco running backs Correll Buckhalter and LenDale White at 20 and 21 respectively.

Now, Buckhalter is a veteran with lots of mileage on him and underachiever White has a long list of off-field problems that has certainly impacted his athletic ability, but both are physical runners and either would seem to blend well with Denver's expected running game emphasis.

For years, new Bronco coach John Fox employed a two-headed monster for an effective ground game at Carolina.

Not too long ago, Fox's offense featured bruiser Jonathan Stewart and speedy DeAngelo Williams--both who gained over 1,000 yards rushing.

Now at Denver, I'd expect Fox to tandem talented speed back Knowshon Moreno with someone big and strong.

If not Buckhalter or White, then who?  Lance Ball?

It will worth watching the free-agency carousel this week to see if Denver grabs a veteran big back; a player who will be touching the ball often and will be a late-round fantasy steal.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Ahmad Bradshaw to South Beach?

In a future post, I'll be arguing against selecting Miami Dolphins rookie running back Daniel Thomas at 45 (via

In the news this week, it was reported that Giants super runner and free agent Ahmad Bradshaw would be interested in signing with the Dolphins. 

Bleacher Report's Matt Miller states that Bradshaw's high profile agent Drew Rosenhaus is from that area and pitched his client to South Beach. 

And what is not to like about the ocean, the warm climate, and a good organization like the Dolphins?

So what does this mean?

For Bradshaw, Miami would seem like a great fit--a team with a running emphasis that would feed him with lots of opportunities. 

For Thomas, it would cause his fantasy draft stock to fall; as 45 for a rookie that will likely be sharing carries and playing second-fiddle is just too high.

Even if the Dolphins pass on Bradshaw and sign another veteran to run the ball this season, grab a WR or another proven performer at 45 and select the Bills RB Fred Jackson and his 900+ rushing yards and 7 total touchdowns with your next pick. 

Sunday, July 17, 2011

A Fantasy Draft Now? Not...

Obviously, this blog's appearance needs lots of work, and I'll be making improvements over the next couple of weeks.

In the meantime, here is my initial post on Fantasy Football 2011.


Last week an energetic fantasy football enthusiast invited me to join his league.

"C'mon dude, my draft is on Sunday."

This Sunday?

With so many unknowns due to the NFL player lockout?

How can anyone evaluate teams and talent when we have can view only about 50% of what each organization will look like when (ok if) the season opens in September.

Anyway, I respectfully declined the invitation, and here are five questions that I want to be able to better answer before I participate in any fantasy draft:

5) How is Maurice Jones-Drew's Surgically Repaired Knee?

MJD has been an elite fantasy performer for many years and produced well in 2010 despite an injury-plagued season while playing for a below-average team (bad defense and sub par quarterbacking).

Will his knee be 100% during training camp? Did the lockout help or hinder his rehab? The answers to these questions will not only impact MJD, but his talented back-up Rashad Jennings.

4) Where will Kevin Kolb be Traded?

The expendable but capable Eagles QB will most certainly be traded during 2011, but will he go to the 49ers, Seahawks, Cardinals, or somewhere else? Kolb's fantasy value will have a wide variation depending on his team and how soon the Eagles make a deal.

3) Which QB will the Cardinals Acquire?

Larry Fitzgerald had another 1,000 yard season despite a revolving door at the Cardinals's signal caller. Trading for Kolb would push Fitzgerald's draft status from around 30 into the top 20--where the top WRs are. Also, having Kolb and the threat of a passing game would make Arizona running backs (Ryan Williams, Beanie Wells, and Tim Hightower) more appealing.

2) Which Starting RBs will Return to His 2010 Team?

Will Ahmad Bradshaw return to the Giants? Bengals officials have declared that resigning Cedric Benson is a priority, but will it happen (His arrest this weekend does not help)? Will the Panthers or another team reward DeAngelo Williams with a new contract--despite a down 2010 and a foot injury?

With these three top 25 RBs, I want to more information before investing a high draft pick on them.

1) Will Chris Johnson Holdout?

The Titans and their star running back were not able to reach an agreement on a new contract prior to the labor problems, and reports have Johnson as dissatisfied. Will the top fantasy player decide to holdout and skip training camp? What if the issue results in him missing regular season games?

If the two parties are feuding, would it not be easier to grab one of the other elite fantasy RBs like Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, or Jaamal Charles and let one of your competitors take the risk on Johnson?

With Johnson and the other questions, it is wise to wait on any fantasy drafts until free agency is over and the teams are showing us something during the preseason.

Selections now would involve too many rolls of the dice and likely translate to a much more stressful rather than enjoyable season.